Market Overview

Updated on August 07, 2026

House View
Type Direction Signal Date
Short-Term Neutral --
Long-Term Neutral --

Tactical Composite Trend Model
Risk Capitulation Bottom Thrust Confirmation LT Trend
Signal Signal Date Count Signal Signal Date Count Signal Signal Date Count Signal Signal Date Count Signal Signal Date Count Signal Signal Date
Neutral -- 0 Neutral -- 0 Neutral -- 0 Neutral -- 0 Neutral -- 0 Neutral --

Systems Overview by Index
Index Risk On/Off (ST) Risk On/Off (LT) Trend System
Level Signal Date Days Level Signal Date Days Level Signal Date Days
S&P 500 100 Bullish 04/14/26 80 100 Bullish 01/08/26 145 100 Bullish 04/10/26 82

Sector Analysis – All Systems (Updated: 08/07/26)
Sector Risk On/Off Composite Trend
System		 Dual Trend System
Short-Term Long-Term Short-Term Long-Term
Level Signal Date Level Signal Date Level Signal Date T-Level R-Level Signal Date T-Level R-Level Signal Date
Communication Services 60 Bearish 06/17/26 60 Bearish 07/24/26 50 Bullish 05/27/25 40 0 Bearish 05/29/26 50 0 Bearish 06/22/26
Consumer Discretionary 80 Bullish 08/05/26 70 Bullish 08/05/26 60 Bullish 07/31/26 70 60 Bearish 02/05/26 60 10 Bearish 11/18/25
Information Technology 100 Bullish 08/05/26 90 Bullish 06/30/25 100 Bullish 04/14/26 70 70 Bullish 08/06/26 100 100 Bullish 04/17/26
Financials 90 Bullish 04/09/26 100 Bullish 06/15/26 90 Bullish 06/12/26 100 70 Bullish 07/01/26 90 60 Bearish 04/14/25
Industrials 100 Bullish 04/14/26 100 Bullish 01/08/26 100 Bullish 06/23/25 100 60 Bullish 06/25/26 100 50 Bullish 06/25/26
Energy 50 Bullish 07/16/26 90 Bullish 01/15/26 70 Bullish 09/16/25 70 20 Bullish 07/23/26 70 30 Bullish 07/23/26
Materials 100 Bullish 06/12/26 100 Bullish 01/13/26 100 Bullish 12/11/25 90 50 Bearish 03/18/26 100 30 Bearish 05/19/26
Consumer Staples 90 Bullish 06/12/26 100 Bullish 01/14/26 60 Bullish 07/29/26 60 0 Bearish 08/04/26 60 0 Bearish 05/08/26
Health Care 100 Bullish 05/26/26 100 Bullish 06/09/26 90 Bullish 06/25/26 100 80 Bullish 06/25/26 90 50 Bearish 03/23/26
Real Estate 60 Bullish 04/09/26 90 Bullish 01/13/26 100 Bullish 04/21/26 70 30 Bearish 08/04/26 100 20 Bearish 08/07/26
Utilities 0 Bearish 08/05/26 30 Bullish 09/30/25 20 Bearish 07/30/26 20 10 Bearish 07/31/26 20 0 Bearish 05/06/26

Note: Indicators range from 0% (weakest) to 100% (strongest). Signal dates show when current signal started.

Historical Signal Performance

Risk On/Off (LT) Model

Signal Ann. Return % of Time
Positive 16.7% 69%
Negative 0.5% 31%
All Periods 7.8% 100%

Risk On/Off (ST) Model

Signal Ann. Return % of Time
Positive 13.8% 69%
Negative 6.3% 31%
All Periods 7.8% 100%

Trend System Model

Signal Ann. Return % of Time
Positive 17.8% 65%
Negative 0.5% 35%
All Periods 7.8% 100%

Tactical Composite Trend Model (TCTM LT)

Signal Ann. Return % of Time
Positive 15.5% 78%
Negative -2.0% 22%
All Periods 7.8% 100%

Tactical Composite Trend Model – Threshold Conditions

Condition Threshold Ann. Return % of Time
Risk-Off ≥ 10% -5.5% 13%
≥ 20% -4.3% 9%
≥ 30% -7.5% 5%
≥ 40% 1.0% 3%
≥ 50% -6.1% 1%
≥ 60% -17.7% 1%
Capitulation ≥ 25% 18.9% 6%
≥ 50% 78.1% 1%
≥ 75% 183.7% 1%
≥ 100% 192.0% 0%
Bottom ≥ 10% 10.1% 30%
≥ 20% 14.2% 22%
≥ 30% 15.9% 17%
≥ 40% 28.3% 13%
≥ 50% 37.2% 8%
≥ 60% 32.5% 6%
Thrust ≥ 10% 17.8% 32%
≥ 20% 25.8% 23%
≥ 30% 32.1% 15%
≥ 40% 38.9% 9%
≥ 50% 40.0% 7%
≥ 60% 44.0% 5%
Confirmation ≥ 10% 12.9% 45%
≥ 20% 20.2% 29%
≥ 30% 22.2% 20%
≥ 40% 22.8% 15%
≥ 50% 30.1% 11%
≥ 60% 36.5% 7%

Note: Historical returns are annualized and based on S&P 500 performance from 1928-2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results.